We’ll have live, automatically-updated results from North Dakota and Washington when they come in, which may not be until Wednesday. Follow along here.
Democratic primary results:
Catch up on live coverage from the primary:
What’s at stake in the primary?
The six states that vote today collectively allocate 352 delegates to the convention, making up about 9% of all delegates awarded throughout the Democratic primary contest.
- Michigan allocates 125 pledged delegates to the convention, making up 3.5% of the total allocated throughout the process. Polls close in most of the state of 8 p.m. ET. In four of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula counties located in the Central Time Zone, polls just closed at 8 p.m. Central and 9 p.m. ET.
- Mississippi allocates 36 pledged delegates to the convention. Polls closed at 7 p.m. local time and 8 p.m. ET.
- North Dakota allocates 14 pledged delegates to the convention. Polls in the state’s Firehouse Caucuses closed at 7 p.m. Central time and 8 p.m. ET.
- Missouri allocates 68 pledged delegates to the convention. Polls closed at 7 p.m. local time and 8 p.m. ET.
- Idaho allocates 20 pledged delegates to the convention. Polls closed at 8 p.m. local time, 10 p.m. ET.
- Washington, which allocates 89 pledged delegates to the convention, conducts its elections entirely by mail. Voters must either mail in a ballot postmarked by election day or drop off their ballot in person in their county elections office no later than 8 p.m. local time on the day of the election.
Democrats allocate most of their pledged delegates proportionally by legislative district, in addition to allocating at-large and PLEO (party leader and elected official) delegates based on the statewide vote breakdown.
While delegates are allocated proportionally, in nearly every state the minimum threshold to earn delegates is 15% of the vote. This means candidates must break 15% of the vote at either the congressional district or state level to earn any delegates.
Now that the race is narrowed down to just two major candidates, both former VP Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders are now likely to both pass the delegate threshold in the upcoming states.
Today’s primaries come a week after Biden’s blowout victory on Super Tuesday, in which he won ten out of the day’s sixteen electoral contests outright and far surpassed Sanders in national pledged delegates.
Biden winning key states like Mississippi, Missouri, and Michigan, which collectively account for 229 pledged delegates, gives him another huge boost in his quest to the nomination and makes Sanders’ path to victory even narrower.
Decision Desk HQ in partnership with the University of Virginia Center for Politics projects that Biden has so far won at least 144 pledged delegates from tonight’s primaries compared to 82 for Sanders.
Who does the polling say is ahead?
FiveThirtyEight’s average of the latest polling data shows Biden significantly advantaged in several key states voting today, including ones that Sanders handily carried in 2016.
The day before the election, Data for Progress released polls showing Biden leading Sanders by a massive margin of 77% to 22% among likely Mississippi Democratic primary voters, and also ahead by four percentage points in Idaho, where the former VP holds the support of 51% of likely Idaho Democratic primary voters compared to 47% backing Sanders.
Biden also leads the latest polls by huge double-digit margins in Michigan and Missouri, two states Sanders either narrowly beat or lost to Hillary Clinton in 2016 by margins of two percentage points or less.
In Washington state, where Sanders beat Clinton by a margin of 45 percentage points in the state’s 2016 caucuses, Biden also narrowly leads the most recent polls going into tonight’s primaries.
While isn’t any recent polling data from North Dakota, FiveThirtyEight’s primary election forecast uses other factors including the results of this year’s primary so far, previous presidential primaries, candidates’ fundraising performance and elite support, and individuals states’ voting histories and demographic compositions to project which candidates are likely to win each state.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast, Biden is projected to win the most pledged delegates in all six states voting today. Biden has the greatest odds of winning Michigan, Missouri, and Mississippi, and is also projected to win the most delegates in Idaho, North Dakota, and Washington.